Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest

• Goals
• Cards
• Substitutions

61'		4 - 2	Goal	L. Bailey
48'		3 - 2	Goal	M. Gibbs-White	D. Origi (Assist)
45'		3 - 1	Goal	M. Niakhaté
39'		3 - 0	Goal	Douglas Luiz	J. McGinn (Assist)
29'		2 - 0	Goal	Douglas Luiz	J. Ramsey (Assist)
4'		1 - 0	Goal	O. Watkins	L. Bailey (Assist)

57'		Álex Moreno	Holding
45'		Felipe	Roughing
15'		Murillo	Roughing

90'			In:	L. Bailey	Out:	M. Diaby
81'			In:	Y. Tielemans	Out:	N. Zaniolo
81'			In:	M. Gibbs-White	Out:	G. Reyna
73'			In:	N. Domínguez	Out:	R. Yates
59'			In:	Álex Moreno	Out:	L. Digne
46'			In:	Pau Torres	Out:	C. Chambers
46'			In:	T. Awoniyi	Out:	A. Omobamidele
46'			In:	Murillo	Out:	H. Toffolo
46'			In:	Felipe	Out:	D. Origi

Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest Predictions

Prediction: Aston Villa or draw

Best odds: 1.15

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As the Premier League heats up, Aston Villa is set to host Nottingham Forest in a clash that promises to be more than just a regular fixture. With predictions leaning heavily towards a Villa victory, the question on everyone's mind is whether Forest can defy the odds and cause an upset at Villa Park this Saturday.

Key Players to Watch

Aston Villa's midfield dynamo Nicolò Zaniolo is expected to be a pivotal figure, with a rating of 6.54, 12 shots, and 7 key passes this season. He's not alone in driving the team's midfield, as Leander Dendoncker also brings a steady presence with an equal rating and a total of 56 passes. Upfront, Jhon Jader Durán Palacio, with a rating of 6.68, has managed to find the net twice, proving his worth as an attacker.

Nottingham Forest, on the other hand, will rely on the defensive solidity of Temitayo Olufisayo Olaoluwa Aina, who not only has a rating of 6.61 but has also contributed one goal and an assist. In the midfield, Danilo dos Santos de Oliveira has been a consistent performer with a rating of 6.69 and 333 passes to his name. Orel Johnson Mangala also stands out with the highest rating of 6.71, showcasing his midfield prowess with 642 passes and 6 key passes.

Recent Form

Aston Villa's recent form reads like a rollercoaster ride with an "LWLDW" sequence, indicating some inconsistency. However, they sit comfortably at 5th place with 46 points and a positive goal difference of 18. Nottingham Forest, positioned at 16th, has struggled more with a form line of "LDLLW" and a goal difference tipping at -14. This disparity in performance levels sets the stage for what could be a decisive encounter for both teams.

Head-to-Head History

Looking back at their recent encounters, the head-to-head record is evenly split. Nottingham Forest secured a 2-0 victory over Villa in their last meeting on November 5, 2023. Before that, on April 8, 2023, Villa claimed a 2-0 win against Forest, and the match prior to that on October 10, 2022, ended in a 1-1 draw. These mixed results add an extra layer of intrigue as both sides will be eager to tip the balance in their favor.

Prediction

The prediction metrics favor Aston Villa with a 63.2% chance of taking home the victory, while Nottingham Forest trails with a 36.8% chance. Villa's home advantage and superior form give them the edge, with a "Double chance: Aston Villa or draw" advice from predictors. The stats suggest a low-scoring affair for Villa with under 3.5 goals, and for Forest, under 2.5 goals.

Considering the current form, head-to-head history, and key player performances, the final prediction leans towards a win or draw for Aston Villa. Their strong home record and the attacking threat posed by players like Zaniolo and Durán Palacio could prove too much for Forest's defense, despite the efforts of Aina and Mangala. Forest will need to pull out all the stops to disrupt Villa's European ambitions and secure a much-needed boost to their survival campaign.

Prediction probabilities

Strength

64%

36%

Attacking Potential

53%

47%

Defensive Potential

60%

40%

Poisson Distribution

79%

21%

Stregth H2H

62%

38%

Goals H2H

60%

40%

Wins the game

63%

37%

Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest Head to Head

24/02	Aston Villa	4 - 2	Nottingham Forest
05/11	Nottingham Forest	2 - 0	Aston Villa
08/04	Aston Villa	2 - 0	Nottingham Forest
10/10	Nottingham Forest	1 - 1	Aston Villa

Premier League standings

Rank	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	31	22	5	4	75	24	51	71
2	Liverpool	31	21	8	2	72	30	42	71
3	Manchester City	31	21	7	3	71	31	40	70
4	Aston Villa	32	18	6	8	66	49	17	60
5	Tottenham	30	17	6	7	62	44	18	57
6	Manchester United	31	15	4	12	45	46	-1	49
7	West Ham	32	13	9	10	52	56	-4	48
8	Newcastle	31	14	5	12	65	52	13	47
9	Chelsea	29	12	7	10	53	50	3	43
10	Brighton	31	11	10	10	51	49	2	43
11	Wolves	31	12	6	13	44	49	-5	42
12	Bournemouth	31	11	8	12	45	55	-10	41
13	Fulham	32	11	6	15	47	51	-4	39
14	Crystal Palace	31	7	9	15	36	54	-18	30
15	Everton	31	9	8	14	32	42	-10	29
16	Brentford	32	7	8	17	45	58	-13	29
17	Nottingham Forest	31	7	8	16	39	53	-14	25
18	Luton	32	6	7	19	45	65	-20	25
19	Burnley	32	4	7	21	32	67	-35	19
20	Sheffield Utd	30	3	6	21	28	80	-52	15