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Manchester City - Manchester United Predictions
As the Premier League gears up for another thrilling Manchester derby, the stage is set at the Etihad Stadium for a clash that could have significant implications at the top of the table. Predictions are favoring Manchester City to either win or secure a draw, but in a fixture as unpredictable as this, anything could happen when they face off against their fierce rivals, Manchester United.
Key Players
The home side boasts a formidable defense with Rico Henry Mark Lewis, whose consistency has been a cornerstone for City's solid backline. With a rating of 6.79 and a total of 253 passes this season, Lewis's presence on the pitch cannot be underestimated. Another defensive stalwart, Nathan Benjamin Aké, has not only contributed with a rating of 7.16 but also added 2 goals and 2 assists to his name. The defensive trio is rounded off by Manuel Obafemi Akanji, with an impressive rating of 7.22 and 2 goals, proving he can be a threat on set pieces.For the visitors, Rasmus Winther Højlund has shown flashes of brilliance despite a lower rating of 6.53. His 8 shots on target from 16 attempts indicate a potential for breaking through City's defense. Anthony Jordan Martial brings an attacking edge with a rating of 6.68, and his ability to create space and chances will be crucial for United. In defense, Teden Mambuene Mengi has shown promise with a rating of 6.81 and will need to marshal his backline effectively to keep City's attackers at bay.
Recent Form
Manchester City's recent form has been impressive, with a string of results reading 'WDWWW', reflecting a team in sync and high on confidence. Currently sitting at 2nd place with 56 points, they have an outstanding home record, remaining unbeaten at the Etihad this season.On the other hand, Manchester United's form 'WWWWD' shows they are not to be taken lightly. Although they are 6th in the table with 44 points, their resilience on the road could prove pivotal in this encounter.
Head-to-Head History
The historical encounters between these two giants have always been electrifying. The last meeting on October 29, 2023, saw Manchester City emerge victorious with a 3-0 win at Old Trafford. Prior to that, the teams exchanged home victories, with City winning 2-1 on June 3, 2023, and United securing a 2-1 win on January 14, 2023. However, City's dominant 6-3 victory on October 2, 2022, showcases their potential to unleash an offensive onslaught.Prediction
Taking into account the recent form, head-to-head history, and key player performances, the prediction leans towards a Manchester City win or draw. The poisson distribution suggests a 69% chance of City scoring, with United at 31%. The total percentage chance of a City win stands at a compelling 63.7% against United's 36.3%.City's defense, featuring Aké and Akanji, looks robust and is expected to stifle United's attacking threats like Martial. Meanwhile, United will need Mengi to be at his best to keep City's forwards in check. The midfield battle will also be crucial, and City's home advantage and current form give them the edge.
In conclusion, while the unpredictability of a derby can never be discounted, the data and performances suggest that Manchester City have the upper hand. Expect a tightly contested match, but with City's quality and home record, the final prediction is a double chance: Manchester City to win or draw. This derby could very well solidify City's Champions League aspirations and add another memorable chapter to the storied rivalry.
Prediction probabilities
Strength
Attacking Potential
Defensive Potential
Poisson Distribution
Stregth H2H
Goals H2H
Wins the game
Manchester City - Manchester United Head to Head
| 03/03 | Manchester City |
3 - 1 | Manchester United |
| 29/10 | Manchester United |
0 - 3 | Manchester City |
| 03/06 | Manchester City |
2 - 1 | Manchester United |
| 14/01 | Manchester United |
2 - 1 | Manchester City |
| 02/10 | Manchester City |
6 - 3 | Manchester United |
Premier League standings
| Rank | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Arsenal
|
31 | 22 | 5 | 4 | 75 | 24 | 51 | 71 |
| 2 |
Liverpool
|
31 | 21 | 8 | 2 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 71 |
| 3 |
Manchester City
|
31 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 71 | 31 | 40 | 70 |
| 4 |
Aston Villa
|
32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 66 | 49 | 17 | 60 |
| 5 |
Tottenham
|
30 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 62 | 44 | 18 | 57 |
| 6 |
Manchester United
|
31 | 15 | 4 | 12 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 49 |
| 7 |
West Ham
|
32 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 52 | 56 | -4 | 48 |
| 8 |
Newcastle
|
31 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 65 | 52 | 13 | 47 |
| 9 |
Chelsea
|
29 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 53 | 50 | 3 | 43 |
| 10 |
Brighton
|
31 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 51 | 49 | 2 | 43 |
| 11 |
Wolves
|
31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 44 | 49 | -5 | 42 |
| 12 |
Bournemouth
|
31 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 55 | -10 | 41 |
| 13 |
Fulham
|
32 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 47 | 51 | -4 | 39 |
| 14 |
Crystal Palace
|
31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 36 | 54 | -18 | 30 |
| 15 |
Everton
|
31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 29 |
| 16 |
Brentford
|
32 | 7 | 8 | 17 | 45 | 58 | -13 | 29 |
| 17 |
Nottingham Forest
|
31 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 39 | 53 | -14 | 25 |
| 18 |
Luton
|
32 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 45 | 65 | -20 | 25 |
| 19 |
Burnley
|
32 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 32 | 67 | -35 | 19 |
| 20 |
Sheffield Utd
|
30 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 28 | 80 | -52 | 15 |
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