Newcastle - Luton

• Goals
• Cards
• Substitutions

73'		4 - 5	Goal	H. Barnes
67'		3 - 5	Goal	K. Trippier
62'		2 - 5	Goal	E. Adebayo	R. Barkley (Assist)
59'		2 - 4	Penalty	C. Morris
57'		2 - 3	Penalty	C. Morris
40'		2 - 2	Goal	R. Barkley
23'		2 - 1	Goal	S. Longstaff
21'		1 - 1	Goal	G. Osho	C. Morris (Assist)
7'		1 - 0	Goal	S. Longstaff	K. Trippier (Assist)

76'		J. Murphy	Tripping
60'		A. Sambi Lokonga	Roughing
56'		D. Burn

88'			In:	E. Adebayo	Out:	C. Woodrow
79'			In:	C. Morris	Out:	J. Brown
79'			In:	A. Doughty	Out:	R. Burke
68'			In:	J. Clark	Out:	P. Mpanzu
64'			In:	D. Burn	Out:	T. Livramento
64'			In:	M. Almirón	Out:	H. Barnes
46'			In:	A. Gordon	Out:	C. Wilson

Newcastle - Luton Predictions

Prediction: Newcastle or draw

Best odds: 1.09

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As the Premier League action heats up, all eyes will be on St. James' Park this Saturday, where Newcastle will lock horns with Luton in a clash that could have significant implications for both ends of the table. With predictions pointing towards a Newcastle advantage, let's delve into the key players who could sway this encounter, analyze both teams' recent form, and revisit their head-to-head showdowns before laying out a detailed forecast for the match.

Key Players

Newcastle's midfield maestro, Sandro Tonali, has been a consistent performer this season, boasting a rating of 6.83. His ability to control the game's tempo, evidenced by his 266 total passes and 8 key passes, could be pivotal in breaking down Luton's defenses. His teammate, Harvey Lewis Barnes, with a 6.85 rating, brings creativity and an eye for goal, having already contributed 1 assist and 1 goal from the midfield.

Another key figure for the Magpies is Sean David Longstaff, who has not only found the net twice but also created chances with 6 key passes, proving his worth in both defensive and attacking transitions. His rating of 6.86 reflects his importance to the team's dynamics.

Luton's hopes may rest on the shoulders of Tahith Jose Girigorio Djorkaef Chong, a versatile midfielder with a 6.62 rating, who can make a difference with his dribbling and shooting skills. Upfront, Elijah Anuoluwapo Oluwaferanmi Ayomikulehin Adebayo stands out as Luton's top scorer with 4 goals, and his physical presence could trouble the Newcastle backline. Lastly, Jacob Samuel Brown brings his 6.75 rating into play, offering a blend of pace and precision that could exploit any gaps in the opposition's defense.

Recent Form

Newcastle's form has been a mixed bag, with their last five outings reading LLLLW. Despite the recent setbacks, their home record remains strong, with 8 wins from 11 matches. Luton, sitting in the relegation zone, have shown some resilience with a form line of DLWW, but their away record is less inspiring, with only 2 wins from 10 games on the road.

Head-to-Head History

The most recent encounter between these two sides was on December 23, 2023, where Luton edged out Newcastle with a narrow 1-0 victory. This result will surely be on the minds of the Newcastle squad as they seek redemption on their home turf.

Prediction

Taking into account the key players' potential impact, the recent form of both teams, and their head-to-head history, the prediction leans towards a Newcastle victory or at the very least, a draw. The predictions suggest a 45% chance each for a win or a draw for Newcastle, with only a 10% chance for a Luton upset.

The form of players like Sandro Tonali, Harvey Lewis Barnes, and Sean David Longstaff could be crucial in steering Newcastle to victory. Meanwhile, Luton will rely heavily on the contributions of Tahith Chong, Elijah Adebayo, and Jacob Brown to defy the odds.

The advice for this match is a double chance: Newcastle or draw. With Newcastle's attacking prowess at home and Luton's struggle to secure points away, it's likely that the home side will come out on top. However, football is unpredictable, and Luton's recent form indicates that they won't go down without a fight. Expect a hard-fought match with Newcastle likely to have the edge, but don't discount a spirited performance from Luton.

Prediction probabilities

Strength

23%

77%

Attacking Potential

42%

58%

Defensive Potential

33%

67%

Poisson Distribution

79%

21%

Stregth H2H

50%

50%

Goals H2H

60%

40%

Wins the game

48%

52%

Newcastle - Luton Head to Head

03/02	Newcastle	4 - 4	Luton
23/12	Luton	1 - 0	Newcastle

Premier League standings

Rank	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	31	22	5	4	75	24	51	71
2	Liverpool	31	21	8	2	72	30	42	71
3	Manchester City	31	21	7	3	71	31	40	70
4	Aston Villa	32	18	6	8	66	49	17	60
5	Tottenham	30	17	6	7	62	44	18	57
6	Manchester United	31	15	4	12	45	46	-1	49
7	West Ham	32	13	9	10	52	56	-4	48
8	Newcastle	31	14	5	12	65	52	13	47
9	Chelsea	29	12	7	10	53	50	3	43
10	Brighton	31	11	10	10	51	49	2	43
11	Wolves	31	12	6	13	44	49	-5	42
12	Bournemouth	31	11	8	12	45	55	-10	41
13	Fulham	32	11	6	15	47	51	-4	39
14	Crystal Palace	31	7	9	15	36	54	-18	30
15	Everton	31	9	8	14	32	42	-10	29
16	Brentford	32	7	8	17	45	58	-13	29
17	Nottingham Forest	31	7	8	16	39	53	-14	25
18	Luton	32	6	7	19	45	65	-20	25
19	Burnley	32	4	7	21	32	67	-35	19
20	Sheffield Utd	30	3	6	21	28	80	-52	15