Bayer Leverkusen - FSV Mainz 05

• Goals
• Cards
• Substitutions

68'		2 - 1	Goal	R. Andrich	F. Wirtz (Assist)
8'		1 - 1	Goal	D. Kohr	S. Widmer (Assist)
3'		1 - 0	Goal	G. Xhaka

80'		J. Ngankam	Serious foul
79'		J. Ngankam	Roughing
74'		F. Wirtz	Unsportsmanlike conduct
66'		A. Caci	Tripping
54'		R. Zentner	Delay of game
52'		D. Kohr	Roughing
49'		J. Tah	Tripping
45'		J. Frimpong	Unsportsmanlike conduct
45'			Unsportsmanlike conduct
42'		K. Onisiwo	Tripping

83'			In:	J. Frimpong	Out:	N. Tella
83'			In:	A. Adli	Out:	P. Hincapié
83'			In:	K. Onisiwo	Out:	T. Krauß
65'			In:	B. Gruda	Out:	J. Ngankam
60'			In:	S. Widmer	Out:	J. Guilavogui
56'			In:	J. Hofmann	Out:	P. Schick

Bayer Leverkusen - FSV Mainz 05 Predictions

Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen

Best odds: 1.25

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In the highly competitive landscape of the Bundesliga, every match holds the potential to dramatically shift the standings. As we approach the 23rd round of the regular season, a tantalizing fixture looms on the horizon: the formidable league leaders Bayer Leverkusen are set to host the struggling FSV Mainz 05 at the BayArena this Friday. With the predictions leaning heavily in favor of the home side, let's delve into the details that could decide the fate of this encounter.

Key Players - Bayer Leverkusen

At the heart of Bayer Leverkusen's success this season is an array of talent that has been nothing short of spectacular. Adam Hložek, the young attacker, has been a revelation with a rating of 6.76. Despite scoring just once, his 5 shots on target and 6 key passes indicate a player on the cusp of a breakout performance.

Equally influential is Amine Adli, whose creativity has been a cornerstone for Leverkusen's attacking prowess. With a rating of 6.94, Adli's 3 assists and 10 key passes highlight his ability to unlock defenses and change the course of a game.

The midfield dynamo Nathan Adewale Temitayo Tella has brought both energy and end-product to the team. His impressive rating of 7.01, coupled with 4 goals from midfield, showcases his importance to Leverkusen's title aspirations.

Key Players - FSV Mainz 05

Despite their precarious league position, Mainz has a few bright spots in their squad. Midfielder Aymen Barkok has shown glimpses of quality, with a rating of 6.57 and 7 shots on target. His ability to drive forward could be key to Mainz's chances of an upset.

Ludovic Ajorque, the towering attacker, has struggled to find the net consistently but remains a threat with 7 shots on target. His physical presence could trouble the Leverkusen backline.

In midfield, Tom Krauß has been a workhorse, with a rating of 6.69 and 478 passes to his name. His discipline and distribution will be vital in Mainz's efforts to contain Leverkusen's attacking threats.

Recent Form

Bayer Leverkusen's recent form reads like the script of a champion in the making. With an impressive tally of 'WWDWW' in their last five games, they have been both resilient and ruthless. Their dominance is further emphasized by their unblemished record at home, with 9 wins and 2 draws.

In stark contrast, FSV Mainz 05's form has been a cause for concern, marked by 'LDLLD'. Their inability to secure a win in their last five outings speaks volumes of the challenges they face in the relegation battle.

Head-to-Head History

Recent head-to-head encounters have largely favored Bayer Leverkusen, with two wins out of the last three meetings. The most recent clash on September 30, 2023, saw Leverkusen dispatch Mainz with a convincing 3-0 victory. However, Mainz did manage to pull off a surprise 3-2 win against Leverkusen on February 19, 2023, showcasing their potential to cause an upset.

Prediction

Taking into account the comprehensive statistics and the stark contrast in both teams' fortunes, the prediction tilts heavily towards a Bayer Leverkusen victory. They are expected to dominate possession and chances, with the predictions suggesting a wide margin in goals with over 75% probability favoring the home side.

Leverkusen's attacking trio, especially Adam Hložek and Amine Adli, are likely to be pivotal, while Mainz will rely on the likes of Aymen Barkok and Ludovic Ajorque to provide a glimmer of hope.

In conclusion, while football is known for its unpredictability, the data points towards a comfortable win for Bayer Leverkusen. They are predicted not just to win but to do so with a significant goal difference, underscoring their credentials as title contenders and possibly deepening Mainz's relegation woes.

Prediction probabilities

Strength

76%

24%

Attacking Potential

77%

23%

Defensive Potential

67%

33%

Poisson Distribution

90%

10%

Stregth H2H

60%

40%

Goals H2H

65%

35%

Wins the game

73%

28%

Bayer Leverkusen - FSV Mainz 05 Head to Head

23/02	Bayer Leverkusen	2 - 1	FSV Mainz 05
30/09	FSV Mainz 05	0 - 3	Bayer Leverkusen
19/02	Bayer Leverkusen	2 - 3	FSV Mainz 05
27/08	FSV Mainz 05	0 - 3	Bayer Leverkusen

Bundesliga standings

Rank	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Bayer Leverkusen	28	24	4	0	69	19	50	76
2	Bayern Munich	28	19	3	6	80	36	44	60
3	VfB Stuttgart	28	19	3	6	64	34	30	60
4	RB Leipzig	28	16	5	7	64	33	31	53
5	Borussia Dortmund	28	15	8	5	55	33	22	53
6	Eintracht Frankfurt	28	10	12	6	43	36	7	42
7	FC Augsburg	28	9	9	10	45	46	-1	36
8	1899 Hoffenheim	28	10	6	12	48	53	-5	36
9	SC Freiburg	28	10	6	12	40	52	-12	36
10	FC Heidenheim	28	8	9	11	41	49	-8	33
11	Werder Bremen	28	8	7	13	36	44	-8	31
12	Union Berlin	28	8	5	15	25	43	-18	29
13	Borussia Monchengladbach	27	6	10	11	46	53	-7	28
14	VfL Wolfsburg	27	7	7	13	33	44	-11	28
15	Vfl Bochum	28	5	11	12	33	58	-25	26
16	FSV Mainz 05	28	4	11	13	26	46	-20	23
17	1.FC Köln	28	4	10	14	23	49	-26	22
18	SV Darmstadt 98	28	2	8	18	28	71	-43	14