Borussia Dortmund - FSV Mainz 05

• Goals
• Cards
• Substitutions

43'		1 - 1	Goal	S. van den Berg
29'		1 - 0	Goal	J. Brandt

90'		A. Barkok	Foul
90'		T. Krauß	Foul
85'		J. Burkardt	Tripping
39'		S. Bell	Tripping

90'			In:	K. Onisiwo	Out:	A. Barkok
90'			In:	S. Widmer	Out:	D. da Costa
81'			In:	T. Meunier	Out:	M. Wolf
72'			In:	N. Schlotterbeck	Out:	G. Reyna
69'			In:	B. Gruda	Out:	M. Papela
69'			In:	M. Richter	Out:	J. Burkardt
63'			In:	J. Bynoe-Gittens	Out:	S. Bamba
63'			In:	N. Füllkrug	Out:	S. Haller
46'			In:	M. Hummels	Out:	N. Süle

Borussia Dortmund - FSV Mainz 05 Predictions

Prediction: Borussia Dortmund or draw

Best odds: 1.14

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As the Bundesliga gears up for another enthralling match-up, the spotlight falls on SIGNAL IDUNA PARK where Borussia Dortmund is set to face off against FSV Mainz 05 on a chilly Tuesday night. With the predictions hinting at a home advantage, fans are eager to see if Dortmund will solidify their position for European competition or if Mainz can upset the odds and claw their way out of the relegation zone.

Key Players

For Borussia Dortmund, the young prodigy Youssoufa Moukoko is one to watch. With a rating of 6.60, Moukoko's agility and knack for finding the back of the net have been pivotal this season, boasting a total of 1 goal from his efforts on target. In defense, Julian Ryerson has been a rock with a rating of 7.04, contributing 2 goals and showcasing his offensive capabilities with 7 key passes. Another defensive stalwart, Nico Cedric Schlotterbeck, stands firm with a 7.08 rating, proving his worth both in defense and in contributing to the scoreboard.

Mainz brings their own set of key players to the battleground, with Tom Krauß holding the midfield with a rating of 6.60 and an eye for critical passes. Upfront, Ludovic Ajorque has demonstrated his attacking prowess with a 6.61 rating and a goal to his name. The midfield dynamo Aymen Barkok, also rated at 6.61, brings versatility and a threat from distance, having already tested goalkeepers with 5 shots on target.

Recent Form

Borussia Dortmund's recent form has been a mixed bag, with their last five games resulting in two losses, one draw, and two wins. Their home record, however, tells a story of dominance, with four wins out of six. Conversely, FSV Mainz 05 has struggled to find their footing this season, with only one win in their last five outings, accompanied by two draws and two losses. The pressure is mounting for Mainz as they sit precariously in the relegation zone.

Head-to-Head History

The head-to-head record between these two sides adds an extra layer of intrigue to the upcoming match. Their last encounter on May 27, 2023, ended in a 2-2 draw, demonstrating Mainz's ability to hold their own against the Dortmund side. However, earlier in the year, on January 25, 2023, Dortmund edged out Mainz with a 2-1 victory. The historical data leans heavily in favor of Borussia Dortmund, but as any football fan knows, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Prediction

Taking into account the recent form, key players' impact, and head-to-head history, the prediction leans towards a Borussia Dortmund win or draw. The home advantage and their higher ranking in the league make them the favorites in this clash. With a 45% chance of victory and another 45% for a draw, as per the predictive analysis, the odds are stacked against Mainz, who only have a 10% chance of taking home all three points.

The advice leans toward a "Double chance: Borussia Dortmund or draw," suggesting that the safety net of a draw still favors the home team. The attacking strength of Dortmund, with a 62% rating against Mainz's 38%, coupled with their defensive prowess, indicates a likely scenario where they will control the game and possibly keep a clean sheet.

In conclusion, while Mainz will undoubtedly put up a fight, the strength and form of Borussia Dortmund, especially at home, make them the clear favorites. With key players like Moukoko, Ryerson, and Schlotterbeck expected to make significant contributions, the prediction is a confident nod towards Dortmund either securing a win or at the very least, a draw, in this Bundesliga encounter.

Prediction probabilities

Strength

63%

38%

Attacking Potential

90%

10%

Defensive Potential

25%

75%

Poisson Distribution

64%

36%

Stregth H2H

93%

7%

Goals H2H

69%

31%

Wins the game

67%

33%

Borussia Dortmund - FSV Mainz 05 Head to Head

11/05	FSV Mainz 05	-	Borussia Dortmund
19/12	Borussia Dortmund	1 - 1	FSV Mainz 05
27/05	Borussia Dortmund	2 - 2	FSV Mainz 05
25/01	FSV Mainz 05	1 - 2	Borussia Dortmund

Bundesliga standings

Rank	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Bayer Leverkusen	28	24	4	0	69	19	50	76
2	Bayern Munich	28	19	3	6	80	36	44	60
3	VfB Stuttgart	28	19	3	6	64	34	30	60
4	RB Leipzig	28	16	5	7	64	33	31	53
5	Borussia Dortmund	28	15	8	5	55	33	22	53
6	Eintracht Frankfurt	28	10	12	6	43	36	7	42
7	FC Augsburg	28	9	9	10	45	46	-1	36
8	1899 Hoffenheim	28	10	6	12	48	53	-5	36
9	SC Freiburg	28	10	6	12	40	52	-12	36
10	FC Heidenheim	28	8	9	11	41	49	-8	33
11	Werder Bremen	28	8	7	13	36	44	-8	31
12	Union Berlin	28	8	5	15	25	43	-18	29
13	Borussia Monchengladbach	27	6	10	11	46	53	-7	28
14	VfL Wolfsburg	27	7	7	13	33	44	-11	28
15	Vfl Bochum	28	5	11	12	33	58	-25	26
16	FSV Mainz 05	28	4	11	13	26	46	-20	23
17	1.FC Köln	28	4	10	14	23	49	-26	22
18	SV Darmstadt 98	28	2	8	18	28	71	-43	14