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FSV Mainz 05 - 1899 Hoffenheim Predictions
As the Bundesliga season heads into its final stretch, the battle for survival heats up with FSV Mainz 05 hosting 1899 Hoffenheim at the MEWA ARENA this Saturday. With predictions leaning towards an away advantage, could Mainz defy the odds, or will Hoffenheim solidify their mid-table standing?
Key Players
For Mainz, the spotlight falls on Aymen Barkok, a midfielder whose vision and passing could be vital in unlocking the Hoffenheim defense. Despite a modest goal tally, his 160 total passes and 5 key passes show his influence on the pitch.Jonathan Michael Burkardt's presence up front cannot be overlooked either. The attacker has been involved in 9 shots on target this season, demonstrating his ability to threaten the goal, even if only one has found the back of the net.
Ludovic Ajorque, another attacker for Mainz, has been more prolific with 2 goals to his name. His 9 shots on target from 20 attempts indicate a player who isn't shy to take his chances, which Mainz will need if they hope to secure a much-needed victory.
Hoffenheim's Ihlas Bebou has shown his capabilities as an attacker with 3 goals and 1 assist. His direct involvement in goals makes him a player to watch.
Marius Bülter, another forward, has been instrumental with 3 assists and 1 goal. His link-up play and ability to set up his teammates could prove decisive.
The midfield maestro for Hoffenheim, Florian Grillitsch, has been the engine of the team. With 770 passes and 2 assists, his role in transitioning play and controlling the midfield battle will be critical.
Recent Form
Mainz's recent form does little to inspire confidence, with a string of mixed results: DWLDL. Sitting at 16th in the table, they are in dire need of points to escape the threat of relegation.Hoffenheim, while not setting the league alight, have had a better run of form with two wins in their last five matches: LLLWW. Their mid-table position reflects a season of ups and downs, but they have shown they can take points off teams when it matters.
Head-to-Head History
The history between these two sides has been evenly matched. Their last encounter ended in a 1-1 draw on November 26, 2023. Mainz managed a win at home against Hoffenheim earlier in the season on March 4, 2023, with a close 1-0 victory. However, Hoffenheim had a comfortable win in their home fixture on September 10, 2022, with a 4-1 scoreline.Prediction
With the predictions and statistics at hand, the scales seem to tip in favor of 1899 Hoffenheim. Their stronger attacking form, led by players like Bebou and Bülter, could prove too much for Mainz's defense. The prediction model suggests a "Double chance: draw or 1899 Hoffenheim" and with 45% chances for both a draw and an away win, it's clear that the visitors are seen as having the upper hand.The model also forecasts a low-scoring affair for Mainz, with a -1.5 goal prediction, while Hoffenheim's -2.5 goal prediction indicates a belief in their ability to score, albeit not in a high-scoring game.
Taking into account the recent form of both teams, their key players' performances, and historical encounters, the final prediction leans towards a draw or a narrow Hoffenheim victory. Mainz will undoubtedly fight hard, especially with the support of their home crowd, but Hoffenheim's slightly better form and attacking options might just give them the edge in this Bundesliga encounter.
Prediction probabilities
Strength
Attacking Potential
Defensive Potential
Poisson Distribution
Stregth H2H
Goals H2H
Wins the game
FSV Mainz 05 - 1899 Hoffenheim Head to Head
| 13/04 | FSV Mainz 05 |
- | 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 26/11 | 1899 Hoffenheim |
1 - 1 | FSV Mainz 05 |
| 04/03 | FSV Mainz 05 |
1 - 0 | 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 10/09 | 1899 Hoffenheim |
4 - 1 | FSV Mainz 05 |
Bundesliga standings
| Rank | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Bayer Leverkusen
|
28 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 69 | 19 | 50 | 76 |
| 2 |
Bayern Munich
|
28 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 80 | 36 | 44 | 60 |
| 3 |
VfB Stuttgart
|
28 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 64 | 34 | 30 | 60 |
| 4 |
RB Leipzig
|
28 | 16 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 33 | 31 | 53 |
| 5 |
Borussia Dortmund
|
28 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 55 | 33 | 22 | 53 |
| 6 |
Eintracht Frankfurt
|
28 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 43 | 36 | 7 | 42 |
| 7 |
FC Augsburg
|
28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 36 |
| 8 |
1899 Hoffenheim
|
28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 48 | 53 | -5 | 36 |
| 9 |
SC Freiburg
|
28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 40 | 52 | -12 | 36 |
| 10 |
FC Heidenheim
|
28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 41 | 49 | -8 | 33 |
| 11 |
Werder Bremen
|
28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 31 |
| 12 |
Union Berlin
|
28 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 25 | 43 | -18 | 29 |
| 13 |
Borussia Monchengladbach
|
27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 28 |
| 14 |
VfL Wolfsburg
|
27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 28 |
| 15 |
Vfl Bochum
|
28 | 5 | 11 | 12 | 33 | 58 | -25 | 26 |
| 16 |
FSV Mainz 05
|
28 | 4 | 11 | 13 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 23 |
| 17 |
1.FC Köln
|
28 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 23 | 49 | -26 | 22 |
| 18 |
SV Darmstadt 98
|
28 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 28 | 71 | -43 | 14 |
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