FSV Mainz 05 - Union Berlin

• Goals
• Cards
• Substitutions

45'		1 - 1	Goal	R. Gosens	J. Haberer (Assist)
45'		1 - 0	Goal	J. Burkardt	N. Amiri (Assist)

79'		Diogo Leite	Holding
53'		K. Vogt	Tripping
16'		L. Ajorque	Foul
15'		L. Ajorque	Foul

80'			In:	K. Onisiwo	Out:	J. Ngankam
76'			In:	A. Schäfer	Out:	A. Král
70'			In:	N. Amiri	Out:	D. Kohr
64'			In:	K. Vogt	Out:	Diogo Leite
63'			In:	B. Hollerbach	Out:	Y. Vertessen
46'			In:	D. da Costa	Out:	S. Widmer

FSV Mainz 05 - Union Berlin Predictions

Prediction: Draw or Union Berlin

Best odds: 1.76

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Prediction: Under 3.5

Best odds: 1.30

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As the Bundesliga season heats up, fans eagerly anticipate the outcome of the upcoming clash between FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin. With both teams teetering on the brink of the relegation zone, this match at the MEWA ARENA on a chilly Friday evening could be pivotal in shaping their season's destiny. Predictions are on a knife-edge, with no clear favorite emerging from the pre-match analysis, leaving supporters and pundits alike in suspense.

Key Players

For Mainz, the spotlight falls on Ludovic Ajorque, an attacker whose presence on the pitch has been felt despite Mainz's struggles. With a modest total of one goal from 13 shots, Ajorque's rating of 6.55 hints at untapped potential that could make a difference in the upcoming match.

Midfielder Aymen Barkok is another player to watch. His 7 shots on target from 10 attempts and a total of 153 passes, including 5 key passes, show his ability to create opportunities. Though his goal tally also stands at one, his midfield presence could be crucial in breaking down Union Berlin's defenses.

Defensively, Anthony Caci stands out with a rating of 6.75. Not only has he contributed two goals, but his defensive work, evidenced by 573 passes and 5 key passes, provides a backbone for Mainz's efforts to fend off opposition attacks.

Union Berlin, on the other hand, will rely on the experience of defender Leonardo Bonucci. Bonucci's leadership and defensive acumen, with a rating of 6.47, will be vital in keeping Mainz's forwards at bay.

In attack, Union Berlin will look to Mikkel Kaufmann Sørensen and Benedict Hollerbach, both with a rating above 6.5 and each with one goal to their name. Their combined efforts in the final third could be the key to unlocking Mainz's defense.

Recent Form

Mainz's recent form reads like a stuttering engine - DLDLD - showing a team struggling to find a win but often managing to scrape a point. Sitting at 16th with 10 points, their goal difference of -15 is a concern, but their fighting spirit is evident.

Union Berlin is slightly better off, with a form line of WLWDL, positioned at 15th with 13 points. Their goal difference stands at -14, indicating that both teams have defensive vulnerabilities that could be exploited.

Head-to-Head History

The head-to-head record between these two sides offers some insight into their competitive history. Their last encounter on August 20, 2023, saw Union Berlin triumph with a 4-1 victory. Prior to that, Union also edged out Mainz 2-1 on February 4, 2023. The match before, dated August 14, 2022, ended in a goalless draw, showcasing the unpredictable nature of this fixture.

Prediction

Considering the high stakes, the pressure of the relegation battle, and the mixed bag of recent performances, predicting the outcome of this match is challenging. Neither team has shown consistent winning form, and both have displayed defensive frailties throughout the season.

In such a tightly contested affair, the role of key players will be magnified. For Mainz, the contributions of Ludovic Ajorque and Anthony Caci could be decisive, while Union Berlin will bank on the experience of Leonardo Bonucci to steady the ship.

The match may very well hinge on a moment of brilliance or a costly mistake. Given the recent form and the high-stakes nature of the game, a draw seems like a plausible outcome. However, with Union Berlin having the upper hand in recent head-to-head encounters, they might just edge it with a narrow victory.

Final Prediction: FSV Mainz 05 1 - 2 Union Berlin, with both teams scoring but Union Berlin taking away the crucial three points in their fight for Bundesliga survival.

Prediction probabilities

Strength

30%

70%

Attacking Potential

40%

60%

Defensive Potential

50%

50%

Poisson Distribution

46%

54%

Stregth H2H

7%

93%

Goals H2H

27%

73%

Wins the game

33%

67%

FSV Mainz 05 - Union Berlin Head to Head

07/02	FSV Mainz 05	1 - 1	Union Berlin
20/08	Union Berlin	4 - 1	FSV Mainz 05
04/02	Union Berlin	2 - 1	FSV Mainz 05
14/08	FSV Mainz 05	0 - 0	Union Berlin

Bundesliga standings

Rank	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Bayer Leverkusen	28	24	4	0	69	19	50	76
2	Bayern Munich	28	19	3	6	80	36	44	60
3	VfB Stuttgart	28	19	3	6	64	34	30	60
4	RB Leipzig	28	16	5	7	64	33	31	53
5	Borussia Dortmund	28	15	8	5	55	33	22	53
6	Eintracht Frankfurt	28	10	12	6	43	36	7	42
7	FC Augsburg	28	9	9	10	45	46	-1	36
8	1899 Hoffenheim	28	10	6	12	48	53	-5	36
9	SC Freiburg	28	10	6	12	40	52	-12	36
10	FC Heidenheim	28	8	9	11	41	49	-8	33
11	Werder Bremen	28	8	7	13	36	44	-8	31
12	Union Berlin	28	8	5	15	25	43	-18	29
13	Borussia Monchengladbach	27	6	10	11	46	53	-7	28
14	VfL Wolfsburg	27	7	7	13	33	44	-11	28
15	Vfl Bochum	28	5	11	12	33	58	-25	26
16	FSV Mainz 05	28	4	11	13	26	46	-20	23
17	1.FC Köln	28	4	10	14	23	49	-26	22
18	SV Darmstadt 98	28	2	8	18	28	71	-43	14