Lecce - Fiorentina

• Goals
• Cards
• Substitutions

90'		3 - 3	Goal	P. Dorgu
90'		2 - 3	Goal	R. Piccoli
68'		1 - 3	Goal	L. Beltrán
51'		1 - 2	Goal	R. Mandragora
50'		1 - 1	Goal	R. Mandragora
17'		1 - 0	Goal	R. Oudin

90'		N. González	Holding
83'		V. Gendrey	Foul
77'		L. Banda	Tripping
72'		L. Ranieri	Foul
50'		P. Almqvist
16'		L. Martínez Quarta	Tripping
15'		L. Martínez Quarta	Tripping

78'			In:	L. Banda	Out:	N. Sansone
78'			In:	L. Beltrán	Out:	F. Parisi
76'			In:	A. Gallo	Out:	P. Dorgu
76'			In:	M. Kaba	Out:	Joan Gonzàlez
69'			In:	N. Krstović	Out:	R. Piccoli
68'			In:	R. Oudin	Out:	R. Piccoli
65'			In:	R. Sottil	Out:	N. González
46'			In:	A. Duncan	Out:	R. Mandragora
46'			In:	G. Bonaventura	Out:	A. Belotti
46'			In:	L. Martínez Quarta	Out:	N. Milenković

Lecce - Fiorentina Predictions

Prediction: Draw or Fiorentina

Best odds: 1.32

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Prediction: Under 3.5

Best odds: 1.25

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As the Serie A season heats up, the upcoming clash between Lecce and Fiorentina on Friday at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare is one to watch, with predictions hinting at a potential win or draw for the visitors. Will Fiorentina cement their place for Champions League qualification, or can Lecce cause an upset? Let's delve into the key players and stats that could shape this encounter before making a detailed prediction.

Key Players

Lecce's midfield dynamo Hamza Rafia has been a consistent performer this season, boasting a rating of 6.61. With 3 shots on target from 6 attempts and a total of 285 passes, his contribution in the midfield cannot be overlooked. Alongside him, attacker Federico Di Francesco with a rating of 6.70, has shown glimpses of brilliance, although his goal tally stands at just one. Another key figure is Joan Gonzàlez Cañellas, a midfielder who has not only scored once but also provided an assist and made 9 key passes, making him a player to watch.

Fiorentina, on the other hand, boasts the talents of Luka Jović, an attacker who has found the back of the net 3 times this season. While his detailed stats are not available, his goal-scoring prowess is well-known. M'Bala Nzola, with a rating of 6.68, has been instrumental in the attack, providing 2 assists and scoring once. His 7 shots on target from 12 attempts show his threat in front of goal. The midfield is anchored by Rolando Mandragora, who has a rating of 6.73, has contributed a goal and an assist, and has completed 355 passes, 6 of which were key passes.

Recent Form

Lecce's recent form has been a mixed bag, with their last five games resulting in one win, one draw, and three losses (LDLLW). This inconsistency has left them in the 14th spot on the table, with a goal difference of -6. Fiorentina, however, is in a much stronger position. Sitting at 4th place, they've accumulated 34 points and have a positive goal difference of +8. Their form reads better with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches (DLWWW).

Head-to-Head History

The head-to-head record provides an interesting context to the game. The last three encounters have seen both teams share the spoils with two draws. The most recent match on August 27, 2023, ended in a 2-2 draw, showcasing the competitiveness between the two sides. Before that, Fiorentina managed a narrow 1-0 victory on March 19, 2023, while the October 17, 2022, fixture ended 1-1.

Prediction

Taking into account the team forms, key player performances, and head-to-head history, the prediction leans towards an away advantage for Fiorentina. They are expected to either win or secure a draw, with a strong suggestion of fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. Fiorentina's attacking prowess, led by Luka Jović and M'Bala Nzola, is likely to be pivotal. However, Lecce's resilience at home, where they have only lost twice, cannot be underestimated.

The data suggests a 45% chance for both a draw and an away win, with Lecce having just a 10% chance of victory. Fiorentina's form away from home and their defensive solidity, with a 73% rating compared to Lecce's 27%, further supports the prediction.

In summary, the match is expected to be tightly contested, but with Fiorentina's higher league position and recent form, they are likely to edge out Lecce. The final prediction is a Fiorentina win or draw, with a scoreline that will not exceed 3.5 goals, making it a potentially low-scoring affair. Keep an eye on key midfield battles and whether Lecce can exploit their home advantage against Fiorentina's quest for Champions League qualification.

Prediction probabilities

Strength

13%

88%

Attacking Potential

33%

67%

Defensive Potential

33%

67%

Poisson Distribution

36%

64%

Stregth H2H

38%

62%

Goals H2H

42%

58%

Wins the game

33%

68%

Lecce - Fiorentina Head to Head

02/02	Lecce	3 - 2	Fiorentina
27/08	Fiorentina	2 - 2	Lecce
19/03	Fiorentina	1 - 0	Lecce
17/10	Lecce	1 - 1	Fiorentina

Serie A standings

Rank	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Inter	30	25	4	1	73	14	59	79
2	AC Milan	31	21	5	5	60	34	26	68
3	Juventus	30	17	8	5	44	24	20	59
4	Bologna	31	16	10	5	45	25	20	58
5	AS Roma	31	16	7	8	56	35	21	55
6	Atalanta	29	15	5	9	54	32	22	50
7	Napoli	31	13	9	9	48	38	10	48
8	Lazio	31	14	4	13	37	34	3	46
9	Torino	31	11	11	9	31	29	2	44
10	Fiorentina	29	12	7	10	42	34	8	43
11	Monza	31	11	9	11	34	41	-7	42
12	Genoa	30	8	11	11	32	37	-5	35
13	Lecce	31	6	11	14	26	48	-22	29
14	Udinese	30	4	16	10	29	45	-16	28
15	Empoli	31	7	7	17	25	47	-22	28
16	Verona	30	6	9	15	27	40	-13	27
17	Cagliari	30	6	9	15	30	51	-21	27
18	Frosinone	31	6	8	17	38	61	-23	26
19	Sassuolo	31	6	7	18	36	59	-23	25
20	Salernitana	31	2	9	20	25	64	-39	15