RB Leipzig - FSV Mainz 05

• Goals
• Cards
• Substitutions
70'		L. Barreiro	Foul
68'		C. Lukeba	Elbowing
34'		N. Amiri	Tripping
27'		P. Mwene	Tripping
20'		A. Caci	Foul

68'			In:	L. Openda	Out:	B. Šeško
68'			In:	C. Baumgartner	Out:	Y. Poulsen
56'			In:	L. Ajorque	Out:	B. Gruda
56'			In:	A. Caci	Out:	S. Widmer
56'			In:	K. Onisiwo	Out:	Lee Jae-Sung

RB Leipzig - FSV Mainz 05 Predictions

Prediction: RB Leipzig

Best odds: 1.43

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As the Bundesliga gears up for another exhilarating weekend, all eyes are set on the Red Bull Arena, where RB Leipzig will clash with FSV Mainz 05 on a pulsating Saturday. The match promises to be a spectacle, with the home side eyeing European glory and the visitors fighting to claw their way out of the relegation mire. With predictions on a knife-edge, let's delve into the key players who could tip the scales and examine the form that has shaped both teams' seasons.

Key Players

For RB Leipzig, the midfield maestro Emil Peter Forsberg has been a lynchpin, boasting a rating of 6.71. His vision has been crucial, with 189 total passes and 6 key passes, contributing to his 2 goals and an assist. Upfront, Timo Werner shares the same rating and is known for his incisive runs and lethal finishing, with 6 shots on target from 7 attempts. Yussuf Yurary Poulsen has been another focal point in attack, leading the line with a rating of 6.80, 3 goals, and 13 shots on target.

On the other side, FSV Mainz 05 will rely heavily on the creative influence of Aymen Barkok, whose 6.57 rating reflects his ability to carve out chances, with 160 passes and 5 key passes to his name. Jonathan Michael Burkardt and Ludovic Ajorque will be pivotal in Mainz's search for goals, with ratings of 6.63 and 6.65, respectively. Ajorque’s 9 shots on target from 20 attempts demonstrate his willingness to test defenses, while Burkardt's contribution will be crucial in linking play and creating opportunities.

Recent Form

RB Leipzig's recent form has been a mixed bag with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five games. Their position at 5th in the league with 40 points from 22 matches reflects a team with solid ambitions but lacking consistent results. The home side's ability to find the net, with 48 goals scored, is offset by their 28 goals conceded, hinting at occasional defensive vulnerabilities.

Mainz, languishing at 17th, presents a stark contrast. With only 15 points from 23 games, their struggle is evident. Their last five outings have seen them secure just one win alongside 1 draw and 3 losses. Scoring has been a significant issue, with a mere 18 goals to their name, while their defense has leaked 37 goals, underscoring the challenges they face at both ends of the pitch.

Head-to-Head History

The head-to-head record provides fascinating reading. Mainz may find some solace in their recent encounters with Leipzig, having won the previous two matches, 2-0 on November 4, 2023, and a surprising 3-0 victory on April 1, 2023. However, the match prior to that ended in a 1-1 stalemate on October 8, 2022. This history suggests that despite their current standings, Mainz has found ways to disrupt Leipzig's rhythm in the past.

Prediction

Given the contrasting trajectories of both teams, this match has all the ingredients of a classic encounter. RB Leipzig, with home advantage and a strong attacking lineup featuring Forsberg, Werner, and Poulsen, will look to dominate possession and capitalize on Mainz's defensive frailties. Mainz, on the other hand, will likely adopt a more cautious approach, hoping to exploit any gaps on the counter, with Barkok, Burkardt, and Ajorque at the helm.

While the predictions remain open, RB Leipzig appears to have the edge, particularly when considering their home record and the imperative to maintain their European qualification spot. Mainz's recent victories over Leipzig add a layer of unpredictability, but their season-long struggles cannot be overlooked.

In conclusion, expect RB Leipzig to take control of the game early on, leveraging their offensive prowess. Mainz may put up a resilient fight, but the quality and depth of Leipzig's squad should prevail. The final prediction: a convincing win for RB Leipzig, with a scoreline that reflects their attacking intent and Mainz's defensive woes.

Prediction probabilities

Strength

63%

37%

Attacking Potential

70%

30%

Defensive Potential

73%

27%

Poisson Distribution

87%

13%

Stregth H2H

29%

71%

Goals H2H

38%

62%

Wins the game

60%

40%

RB Leipzig - FSV Mainz 05 Head to Head

30/03	RB Leipzig	0 - 0	FSV Mainz 05
04/11	FSV Mainz 05	2 - 0	RB Leipzig
01/04	RB Leipzig	0 - 3	FSV Mainz 05
08/10	FSV Mainz 05	1 - 1	RB Leipzig

Bundesliga standings

Rank	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Bayer Leverkusen	28	24	4	0	69	19	50	76
2	Bayern Munich	28	19	3	6	80	36	44	60
3	VfB Stuttgart	28	19	3	6	64	34	30	60
4	RB Leipzig	28	16	5	7	64	33	31	53
5	Borussia Dortmund	28	15	8	5	55	33	22	53
6	Eintracht Frankfurt	28	10	12	6	43	36	7	42
7	FC Augsburg	28	9	9	10	45	46	-1	36
8	1899 Hoffenheim	28	10	6	12	48	53	-5	36
9	SC Freiburg	28	10	6	12	40	52	-12	36
10	FC Heidenheim	28	8	9	11	41	49	-8	33
11	Werder Bremen	28	8	7	13	36	44	-8	31
12	Union Berlin	28	8	5	15	25	43	-18	29
13	Borussia Monchengladbach	27	6	10	11	46	53	-7	28
14	VfL Wolfsburg	27	7	7	13	33	44	-11	28
15	Vfl Bochum	28	5	11	12	33	58	-25	26
16	FSV Mainz 05	28	4	11	13	26	46	-20	23
17	1.FC Köln	28	4	10	14	23	49	-26	22
18	SV Darmstadt 98	28	2	8	18	28	71	-43	14