Nice - Lens

• Goals
• Cards
• Substitutions

78'		3 - 0	Goal	T. Moffi	J. Boga (Assist)
76'		2 - 0	Penalty	T. Moffi
75'		1 - 0	Penalty	T. Moffi

26'

J. Lotomba

Unsportsmanlike conduct

90'			In:	H. Boudaoui	Out:	R. Perraud
89'			In:	J. Boga	Out:	T. Louchet
85'			In:	A. Mendy	Out:	A. Claude-Maurice
82'			In:	N. El Aynaoui	Out:	Ó. Cortés
82'			In:	F. Sotoca	Out:	M. Guilavogui
78'			In:	David Pereira da Costa	Out:	A. Diouf
78'			In:	W. Saïd	Out:	E. Wahi
78'			In:	P. Frankowski	Out:	A. Fulgini
74'			In:	David Pereira da Costa	Out:	A. Diouf
74'			In:	W. Saïd	Out:	E. Wahi
74'			In:	P. Frankowski	Out:	A. Fulgini
73'			In:	G. Laborde	Out:	T. Moffi

Nice - Lens Predictions

Prediction: Draw or Lens

Best odds: 1.34

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Prediction: Under 3.5

Best odds: 1.25

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As the Ligue 1 season heats up, a tantalizing encounter is on the horizon with Nice hosting Lens at the Allianz Riviera. The predictions point towards a tight clash, with a possible edge for the home side. But will the key players step up to sway the outcome? Let's dive into the stats and stories that could shape this midweek match-up.

Key Players - Nice

Nice, sitting comfortably at second in the league, owes much of its success to the contributions of its key players. Evann Guessand, with a solid rating of 6.64, has been impactful in the attacking third. His two goals from 14 shots show a player finding his feet in front of goal. In midfield, Hicham Boudaoui has been the engine room, boasting a 6.84 rating and an impressive 244 passes to his name, including 6 key passes. His link-up play could prove crucial against Lens. The attack is further bolstered by Gaëtan Laborde, who has not only scored two goals but also provided an assist. His 10 shots on target from 24 attempts illustrate his threat in the final third.

Key Players - Lens

Lens will rely on their key players to disrupt Nice's strong home record. Wesley Saïd, with a 6.84 rating, has been a vital part of Lens' forward line. Though he's found the back of the net once, his six shots on target from just eight attempts hint at a player who could turn a game on its head. On the defensive end, Deiver Andrés Machado Mena stands out not just for his defensive prowess but also for his surprising goal contribution of three goals. His 207 passes and 8 key passes from the back could initiate crucial attacking transitions. Finally, Morgan Bono Guilavogui, with the highest rating among the key players at 6.97, will be looking to add to his two-goal tally and disrupt Nice's defensive setup.

Recent Form

Nice's recent form has been a mix of consistency and resilience, marked by their last five games' record of WLWDW. Their ability to bounce back and grind out results has been a hallmark of their season. Lens' form, indicated by the sequence DWWWD, showcases their ability to remain unbeaten, making them a formidable opponent.

Head-to-Head History

The head-to-head record between these two sides adds an extra layer of intrigue. Their most recent meeting on February 1, 2023, saw Nice edge out a 1-0 victory away at Lens. Prior to that, the teams shared the spoils in a goalless draw on December 29, 2022. This history suggests a closely fought contest is once again on the cards.

Prediction

The prediction for this match leans towards a Nice victory or a draw, with a strong likelihood of fewer than 3.5 goals being scored in total. The statistical analysis gives Nice a combined probability of 59.8% to either win or draw, compared to Lens' 40.2%. The form of the home side, coupled with their defensive solidity—conceding only two goals at home—gives them the edge. However, the attacking threat posed by Lens, especially from players like Wesley Saïd and Morgan Bono Guilavogui, cannot be underestimated.

The advice for this match is a combo double chance: Nice or draw and under 3.5 goals. With both teams showing a balance in their goal-scoring percentages, a tight match is expected, likely with few goals. The key players will undoubtedly play a pivotal role, but the defensive metrics, particularly Nice's 67% defense home rating against Lens' 33% away, suggest a low-scoring affair.

In conclusion, expect a strategic battle with Nice likely to leverage their home advantage and recent form to secure at least a point. Lens will challenge fiercely, but the prediction rests on a Nice win or draw, with the match not expected to be a high-scoring one.

Prediction probabilities

Strength

35%

65%

Attacking Potential

31%

69%

Defensive Potential

29%

71%

Poisson Distribution

81%

19%

Stregth H2H

71%

29%

Goals H2H

50%

50%

Wins the game

50%

51%

Nice - Lens Head to Head

16/03	Lens	-	Nice
20/12	Nice	2 - 0	Lens
01/02	Lens	0 - 1	Nice
29/12	Nice	0 - 0	Lens

Ligue 1 standings

Rank	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	28	18	9	1	65	24	41	63
2	Stade Brestois 29	28	15	8	5	41	23	18	53
3	Lille	28	13	10	5	42	25	17	49
4	Monaco	27	14	7	6	52	38	14	49
5	Nice	28	12	8	8	28	22	6	44
6	Lens	28	12	7	9	37	30	7	43
7	Reims	28	11	7	10	35	36	-1	40
8	Marseille	28	10	9	9	41	33	8	39
9	Rennes	27	10	9	8	40	33	7	39
10	Lyon	27	10	5	12	31	41	-10	35
11	Toulouse	28	8	9	11	32	36	-4	33
12	Strasbourg	28	8	9	11	30	39	-9	33
13	Montpellier	28	8	9	11	35	40	-5	32
14	LE Havre	28	6	10	12	27	36	-9	28
15	Nantes	27	8	4	15	26	42	-16	28
16	Lorient	28	6	8	14	35	52	-17	26
17	Metz	28	6	5	17	28	48	-20	23
18	Clermont Foot	28	4	9	15	20	47	-27	21